As the US-Iran conflict entered its third week on Saturday, a central strategic question loomed over every development: how long could Iran hold the Strait of Hormuz closed against the most powerful military in the world, and what would it take to force the waterway back open? Iran had maintained the closure since the war began on February 28, defying US airstrikes, international economic pressure, and Trump’s increasingly pointed threats. The strait, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas passes, remained shut, and there was no public sign that Iran intended to reopen it.
President Trump’s appeal on Saturday for China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to the region was itself an implicit admission that the US did not yet have a clear military answer to the closure. Forcing open a strait defended by missile batteries, naval mines, and fast attack boats in Iran’s territorial waters was a complex and dangerous operation that risked significant casualties and could trigger even wider escalation. Trump had said in public remarks that Kharg Island had been effectively demolished, but the bombing campaign against Iran’s oil infrastructure had not moved Tehran on the Hormuz question.
Iran demonstrated on Saturday that it retained the will and capacity to fight on. Ballistic missiles struck Fujairah in the UAE, suspending oil-loading operations and prompting warnings for civilians to evacuate near ports and US installations. Iranian commanders threatened strikes on any Gulf energy facility with American ties. The foreign minister called on Arab states to expel US forces. Iran fired rockets at Israel simultaneously. Israeli warplanes conducted dozens of raids inside Iran, killing at least 15 people in Isfahan. Iran’s military showed no sign of modifying its behaviour under pressure.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s leadership was “desperate and hiding” and wounded. Iranian officials confirmed the injury but disputed its severity. The International Crisis Group assessed the regime as structurally intact and executing a deliberate long-term strategy of survival and prolonged conflict. The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional US marines were heading to the region, adding options without specifying which ones might be used. Trump ruled out negotiations, saying the terms were not yet acceptable.
The economic and human toll of the Hormuz closure and broader conflict continued to mount. More than 1,400 Iranians had been killed in the bombing. Thirteen Israelis and roughly 20 Gulf residents had died. Lebanon’s crisis continued, with 800 killed and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Six US troops died in an aircraft crash in Iraq. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck, and Americans in Iraq were ordered to leave. How the Hormuz question would ultimately be resolved — and at what cost — remained the defining strategic uncertainty of the war.