The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 3.0%. Despite this upward revision, the forecasted growth remains lower than the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. The IMF projects further expansion, with the global economy expected to grow by 3.4% in 2027.
While investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is playing a crucial role in mitigating the economic effects of rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions, the IMF warns that the benefits of AI are not evenly distributed. The United States and China are leading the demand for AI-related imports, including computer chips, accounting for more than three-quarters of the net demand.
The IMF has also highlighted several risks that could impact global financial stability. These include a potential correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. Additionally, the organization estimates that AI could affect around 40% of jobs worldwide, altering tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation is projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before decreasing to 4.1% in 2027, based on the assumption that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and that the demand for AI-related products will moderate.
Among major economies, the United States is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is projected to expand by 4.5% this year. India is anticipated to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, following 7.7% in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are forecasted to grow by 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027. However, the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia is less optimistic, with expectations of economic contraction this year before a recovery in 2027.
The IMF has urged governments to enhance public finances and manage rising debt levels, as borrowing costs stay high and geopolitical uncertainties continue to challenge the global economic outlook.