Mexico could face significant economic challenges due to its heavy reliance on U.S. diesel imports, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for a proposal to curb or ban these exports. As over 40% of Mexico’s diesel demand is met by U.S. supplies, any disruption could lead to increased transportation costs and pressures on fuel prices, inflation, and industries such as transportation, agriculture, and mining.
In June 2026, Mexico imported an average of approximately 288,000 barrels of diesel per day from the United States, according to U.S. energy data. With rising energy prices globally, partly due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, diesel costs have surged, prompting the proposal in Washington to limit diesel exports.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has reassured the public that domestic production is sufficient and the government remains committed to supporting diesel prices. She pointed out the output from Mexico’s refinery network, including the newly established Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco, as part of the country’s strategy to buffer against external supply shocks.
The Mexican government has also been proactive in maintaining fuel subsidies and securing a voluntary price agreement with fuel retailers to mitigate the impact of international energy price hikes. These measures include tax incentives and additional government financial support aimed at keeping diesel prices stable.
Experts in the energy sector are urging Mexico to prepare for potential supply disruptions by diversifying its diesel import sources, boosting domestic refining capacities, and enhancing fuel storage infrastructure. Amid the uncertainties in U.S. energy policy and the global fuel market, these strategies are seen as crucial for reducing Mexico’s vulnerability to diesel supply interruptions from its largest supplier.