The return of $100 oil is forcing a fundamental rethink of global energy security architecture, exposing the dangers of a world that remains heavily dependent on a handful of chokepoints for the transit of its most critical commodity. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 — and the progressive shutdown of alternative export terminals — has revealed how quickly the global oil supply can be disrupted by a single determined military actor. Markets are absorbing this reality as Brent crude hovers near $100 a barrel Thursday.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships near the strait, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and the area adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal Thursday. Three crew members aboard the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main export terminal of vessels.
Brent gained 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 before settling at $98. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 at the year’s start to a weekly peak of $119. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic consequences for world energy markets. Iran’s military warned of $200-per-barrel oil.
The IEA’s 400-million-barrel emergency release from 32 member nations and the US’s 172-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve contribution were the largest supply interventions in history. Despite their scale, prices remained elevated. President Trump pledged to continue military operations against Iran.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas prices rose 7.7%.