The staggering potential cost of a court loss haunts President Donald Trump’s latest tariff ambitions. As the administration proposes a massive new 100% tariff on India and China, the looming threat of being forced to refund tens of billions of dollars in already-collected duties hangs over the entire policy, raising questions about its fiscal prudence and long-term viability.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has put a fine point on the danger, stating that a defeat at the Supreme Court would require the government to “give a refund on about half the tariffs.” This admission quantifies the massive financial liability the administration has exposed the country to through its trade policies.
Despite this clear and present danger, the White House is not only defending its existing tariffs but proposing a dramatic escalation. The plan to target India and China over their support for Russia would vastly increase the pool of tariff revenue that might need to be refunded, compounding the financial risk.
This creates a paradoxical situation where the administration is expanding a policy that could soon be declared both illegal and ruinously expensive. The Supreme Court’s impending decision will determine whether this gamble pays off or leaves the US Treasury with a “terrible” bill to pay.