Beyond the direct cost of tariffs, the prolonged period of trade uncertainty between the US and EU is exacting a heavy, unseen cost by forcing companies to make drastic, long-term strategic decisions. The move by Swiss firms Lindt and Victorinox to shift production to the US is a prime example of this hidden toll.
For years, businesses have operated in a relatively stable and predictable transatlantic trade environment. The recent era of tariff threats and disputes has shattered that predictability. This uncertainty is toxic for business planning, as it makes it impossible to forecast costs, manage supply chains, and make long-term investment decisions with confidence.
In response, companies are seeking to eliminate the uncertainty by removing themselves from its path. Relocating production inside the US market is an extreme but logical solution. It is a costly and disruptive process, but it insulates the company from the whims of future trade negotiations and potential tariffs.
The new trade framework, while providing some clarity, does not eliminate this underlying uncertainty. The baseline 15% tariff and the possibility of future disputes mean that the pressure to de-risk supply chains by onshoring will continue. This unseen cost—the strategic reorganization of entire industries—may be the most enduring legacy of the current trade friction.